Labour could be on course to win Weston-super-Mare for the first time ever at the next election while the seats of top Tories Jacob-Rees Mogg and Liam Fox look set to come down to a knife-edge, a major new poll has said.

YouGov's poll, commissioned by Conservative Britain Alliance and first released in the Telegraph, is based on interviews with over 14,000 voters to model a result for each constituency in Great Britain. It predicts a Labour landslide if the election was held today, with the party winning 183 more seats than they did in 2019.

One of those new seats would be Weston-super-Mare, which has never before voted Labour. It has been represented by Conservative John Penrose since 2005 who, at the last general election in 2019, won 57% of the vote.

YouGov's poll puts him as winning 33% of the vote, just behind Labour with 35%. But — speaking to the Local Democracy Reporting Service — YouGov's director of political analytics Dr Patrick English said: "Anything within even a 5pt margin is effectively the model saying: 'This is super close.'"

The poll had the Conservatives holding onto North Somerset and North East Somerset and Hanham — but only by one per cent each. In both constituencies, the poll puts the Conservatives on 33% of the vote with Labour just behind on 32%.

Dr English said: "I would be very worried if I were Jacob Rees-Mogg looking at this — a one point margin on this kind of model is effectively saying the whole thing is a tossup, and that either side could very realistically win."

Mr Rees-Mogg represents North East Somerset which will be substantially altered by boundary changes, losing most of the district east of Paulton and gaining the South Gloucestershire Bristol suburb of Hanham, to become North East Somerset and Hanham. North Somerset, represented by Sir Liam Fox, and Weston-super-Mare will also be hit by the boundary changes with the area around Yatton and the villages east of Weston-super-Mare joining the Wells and Mendip Hills constituency.

When the poll was released in the Telegraph, the paper said that support for Reform UK — which was founded by ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage in 2018 as the Brexit Party — would be a "decisive factor" in many Conservative losses. The party is not predicted to win any seats but will attract a number of votes in constituencies which the Conservatives are on course to narrowly lose. It is polling at about 10% across Weston-super-Mare, North Somerset, and North East Somerset and Hanham.

But Dr English said: "It's hard to say what would happen if Reform backed out. We think about one third would go back to the Tories, and less than that would go to Labour. That means, ultimately, Reform UK dropping out would definitely help the Tories more than Labour but the gains would be incremental, rather than sweeping."

The poll asked people how they would vote if an election was held today, so things may change by polling day. No date for the election has yet been set but Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has indicated it will be in the second half of 2024. It legally must be held by January 2025.